Forecasters predicting a normal summer! NZ Herald

Sep 27, 2012   //   by keithwagener   //   Blog  //  No Comments

 

This year’s summer is unlikely to be a repeat of last year’s big wet, say forecasters.

News of a warm summer was enough to make Scarlet Grace, 6, do cartwheels on Piha beach yesterday. Photo / Sarah Ivey

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News of a warm summer was enough to make Scarlet Grace, 6, do cartwheels on Piha beach yesterday. Photo / Sarah Ivey

Sunnies will replace brollies later this year as weather forecasters predict a mercifully typical Kiwi summer unlike last year’s washout.

La Nina and other dominant weather patterns will stay away this summer and New Zealand can expect a “bit of everything” and average temperatures.

Niwa climate scientist Dr Brett Mullan said it was a “good bet” last summer’s persistent wet would not be repeated.

The borderline El Nino weather conditions in the tropical Pacific appeared to have weakened further over the past month, he said.

And with no repeat of La Nina conditions – responsible for last summer’s rain – there could be no dominant weather pattern over the season.

“If we don’t have something like an El Nino or La Nina, we don’t get the same persistence over the whole summer or longer.

“It will be a bit more changeable,” Dr Mullan said. “But it doesn’t mean it can’t be windy for a month or two, or dry, or whatever. Because you can get events that persist for shorter periods.”

WeatherWatch analyst Philip Duncan said the changeable weather of autumn, winter and now spring could continue if El Nino conditions failed to develop.

full story http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10836070

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